MANILA, Philippines — Up to 340,000 Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs) could lose their jobs if tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, according to Arsenio Balisacan, Secretary of the Department of Economy, Planning and Development (DepDev).
Speaking before the House Ways and Means panel, Balisacan said the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran may significantly impact employment, both abroad and domestically.
“We are looking at an increase in unemployment from the baseline of 4.6 percent in 2026 to as high as 5.3 percent,” he said, noting that this could translate to an additional 200,000 to nearly 340,000 unemployed workers.
Oil Supply Disruption Raises Alarm
The economic risks intensified after Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil corridor, following retaliatory strikes linked to the conflict.
The Philippines, which imports about 98 percent of its crude oil from the Middle East, faces heightened exposure to rising fuel prices.
Analysts warn that increased oil costs could drive up expenses in transportation, logistics, and production—putting further pressure on businesses and employment.
Repatriation and Deployment Ban Impacting Workers
Balisacan confirmed that some OFWs have already been affected by deployment bans and ongoing repatriation efforts.
Current projections assume a 5 percent repatriation rate, but he cautioned that higher repatriation levels could worsen unemployment figures.
“These estimates already consider lower remittances, higher transport costs, and reduced domestic demand due to inflation,” he explained.
Domestic Economy at Risk
With 75 percent of the Philippine economy driven by domestic consumption, reduced household income could have widespread effects.
Economists warn that declining remittances and rising costs of living may lead to:
- Slower economic growth
- Increased unemployment
- A rise in poverty among Filipino families
Uncertain Outlook
As geopolitical tensions remain unresolved, officials continue to monitor the situation closely.
The Philippine government is expected to implement contingency measures to support affected workers, particularly those in the Middle East, where a large portion of OFWs are employed. – GMA News
